American Military Build-up near Venezuela Shoreline Evokes Memories of 1989's Panamanian Invasion

Using night vision gear, Mike Durant viewed as two heavy precision explosives impacted onto the Panamanian military base while he hovered near the country's southern shoreline in a military aircraft.

"The massive explosion, followed after a blast ... comparable to the largest lightning flash you've ever seen in your lifetime," the retired US army pilot remembered of the initial strike of the Battle of Rio Hato Airfield in the month of December 1989.

Past Comparisons

The stealth bomber assault and following army ranger assault marked the start of Operation Just Cause - intended to oust Panama's military dictator, General Noriega.

Durant and his unit members had directives to take control of the Panama's military forces installation to prevent troops arriving to Noriega's rescue. Over the following period, the pilot and over 25,000 additional American soldiers hunted the autocrat, who finally capitulated on 3 January 1990.

"Noriega was a awful man ... and he had to be taken out," stated Durant.

Current Armed Forces Movements

Remembrances of Just Cause have returned in recent weeks after President Trump directed the largest American military buildup in the region and the Caribbean Sea since the time of that operation almost four decades' ago.

A significant portion of US naval forces - featuring the world's largest aircraft carrier, the USS Ford - have been dispatched to the area since last August, with B-52 aircraft and elite troops spotted off Venezuelan northern shoreline. Airstrikes on suspected narcotics vessels in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean have killed more than 60 persons.

Official vs Suspected Objectives

Formally, the stationing of naval vessels, Reaper unmanned aircraft and approximately 10,000 military troops is a component of a crackdown on South American narco-traffickers who the administration accuses of saturating the United States with narcotics. But many suspect the administration's real aim is overthrowing Venezuela's dictator, Nicolás Maduro, just as George HW Bush ousted Noriega before he was prosecuted and imprisoned in the US.

Political Perspectives

Some figures of Venezuelan opposition seem keen for a repeat of Just Cause, on an even more greater scale. The exiled politician Leopoldo López recently expressed endorsement for a US intervention to remove Maduro, who is widely considered to have manipulated last year's presidential election.

"Not to be the messenger of negative information, but it looks like we are about to embark on yet another government overthrow operation, like, next week," declared Tucker Carlson this past week, mentioning the Iraq war as a primary example of the United States' problematic history of government overthrows gone wrong.

"It seldom achieves its goals - but we are doing it again, evidently," Carlson commented.

Public and Specialist Perspective

A current survey found almost half of the public against employing military force to remove Maduro with just 18% approving.

The retired pilot also had reservations, despite viewing the Panama operation the most successful mission of his two-decade military career. He was confident US troops could remove Maduro, as they did Noriega. "We have substantial capacity and superb personnel. But would it be worth putting all that at risk?" asked Durant.

Before Just Cause, many of American troops were deployed in Panama, Durant observed, but the US has no such footprint in Venezuela.

Military Analysis

It was also unknown how prepared Maduro's Bolivarian troops were of fighting against an invasion. "This to me is the biggest unknown factor," Durant said. "The Venezuelan military do good military displays. But what can they actually do? Are they prepared? Are they supported? Are they willing to combat? Are they devoted?"

Historical Comparisons

Michael Grow, a academic who authored research about US presidents and South American cold war interventions, saw "intriguing comparisons" to past military actions.

In the year 1988, on the brink of the Panama operation, the US indicted Noriega for drug smuggling - exactly like they have with Maduro who recently had a fifty million dollar reward issued on his head for allegedly running a "narco-terrorist" network. "So ... they've established a useful pretext if they opt to undertake a military path," Grow stated.

Possible Outcomes

"However I don't think it's on the table with this administration ... These particular people are not neo-conservatives. They're considerably more isolationist ... I simply don't anticipate the US getting entangled in a ground conflict in the continent," Grow added, while he didn't rule out "targeted attack unmanned operations"

James Story, the US's chief official for Venezuela from 2018 to 2023, additionally doubted a Just Cause-style attack was likely: "The United States typically like superior strength and it would need 100,000 troops - and that's not this administration's style."

Alternative Strategies

But the ex- ambassador - who originally regarded Trump's military buildup posturing - now estimated an 80% probability of "certain preemptive operation" on the country's soil in the coming 30 days' time, likely an airstrike. "The level of assets that have been positioned in the zone suggest to me that we're going