Balloons from Belarus Create Disruption in the Baltic Nation. Criminal Networks or a Covert Warfare Tactic?

Whenever the wind blows northwest from Belarus, Lithuania braces for issues.

That is when enormous inflatables are launched across the border, with containers of contraband goods dangling beneath.

Over the last two and a half months, this unauthorized aerial activity has caused Lithuania's main airport into closure 15 times, stranding thousands of travellers.

On one occasion, the national skies was shut down entirely for a lengthy 11 hours.

However, the authorities are adamant they are dealing with something far more hostile than mere smugglers.

They assert the balloons have been "weaponised" in an manifestation of unconventional conflict by Belarus, Moscow's key partner.

State of Alert

The Lithuanian administration has declared an state of emergency.

While balloons have been used by smugglers before, their numbers escalated rapidly this October.

"Of course it began as organised crime activity, but we've seen repeatedly how Belarus instrumentalises criminal networks to have an effect on bordering nations," a government minister stated.

The official suggested the balloons are launched from locations that help them best disrupt Lithuania's main airport, situated just 30km from the border.

"If you want to conduct a smuggling operation, you'd do it in the forests or swamps, not directly at our airport!" the minister argued.

Instead, there is a view that the balloons represent a form of diplomatic leverage on Europe's eastern edge.

"They see this as leverage: 'You have a border with us, we can cause you {huge problems|significant disruption|major issues'," the official said. "What they're doing is really touching the realm of national security."

Border Vigilance

Now, every night, security forces patrol in the border zone.

The balloons are most common under cover of darkness.

Patrols establish mobile checkpoints on remote country roads, inspecting drivers' documents and examining vehicles looking for anyone involved to the smuggling networks.

The balloons travel too high to make shooting them down a safe or economic option.

Consequently, the government has announced a €1m prize to any firm that can devise how to intercept them.

In the meantime, teams use advanced tracking systems to track the balloons and attempt to catch smugglers at the drop zones.

Soon, new criminal charges for acts of sabotage should also act as a deterrent.

Strategic Motives

The frontier line is now defined by a tall metal fence, with barbed wire and concrete blocks.

This enhanced fortification is a visible indicator of how Lithuania now perceives its neighbour as threatening.

Not far away, the long-time ruler of Belarus has rejected all talk of hybrid warfare as "nonsense".

He recently blamed "bandit" smugglers, saying they were simply seeking a profit and finding innovative ways to overcome the new security fence.

Lithuania is skeptical, partly due to past precedent.

In 2021, migrants were facilitated to cross into Lithuania and Poland in large numbers, provoking a manufactured emergency.

"Now they are doing a series of one or two balloons every 30 minutes, precisely targeted at the airport," explained a crisis management official.

"{In Belarus... if they were interested in stopping it they could do it immediately. But they don't. That suggests it benefits them."

The belief is that Belarus is trying to bully its way into lifting international restrictions.

"They want to attract political attention and compel us to change our policies towards Belarus," is how one minister views the dramatic increase of balloons.

The EU does not recognise the Belarusian leader as president following contested votes in 2020 and a subsequent repression.

Sanctions were levied then and strengthened later when Belarus aided Russia's war of Ukraine.

"{First, they want to end the international isolation of the regime and number two, of course, the sanctions," the minister argued.

Consequences for Travel

Currently, travellers and airlines face disruptions.

"This is something completely new for the aviation sector," stated the airport CEO.

One airline has already moved its charter flights, and another has cut its evening service.

Revenue losses for all impacted companies are estimated to reach €2m by year's end.

"There are direct financial costs, but the greater concern is if passengers start to lose confidence in air travel," he admitted.

Already, travellers consult a dedicated website for wind forecasts and balloon probability before booking flights.

"It's stressful, it makes me a little bit nervous. I'd just like to get home as planned," one passenger said.

"I am convinced this is a form of aggression on us," said a local resident. "I think for them it's really funny to fly those balloons and then laugh at us."

Her words hint that another aim of such hybrid activity – creating division – is also having an effect, and perhaps more difficult to counter.

"They're basically testing the limits of the alliance: looking at how we respond to these kinds of things," said another citizen.

"And we can't even deal with simple balloons. We're not even prepared for the basic stuff."