From Superpower to Rogue State: The Implications of the US Seizure of Venezuela's Maduro

Amid the widespread uncertainty surrounding the United States attacks on Venezuela, the capture of President Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “seize control of the oil”, one thing is clear – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Grim History and a New Escalation

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in that part of the world, but the early hours of Saturday witnessed its first major military attack on the soil of a South American nation. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The choice to militarily strike another state and seize its president – only a few days after he stated a desire for negotiations – has still wider repercussions. This ought to concern everyone.

A Nation Left in Limbo

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, commonly thought to have stolen the last election. They now face extreme instability in the best case. Mr Trump has suggested that Maduro's second-in-command, Delcy Rodríguez would do as the US says, and brushed aside prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a viable alternative.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the acting leader, has so far sounded notes of defiance – and other factions of the headless administration are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who won power vowing to end foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was not merely symbolic. He does not see the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a lawless actor.

He holds the view that the US’s might allows it to do as it wishes with minimal cost: witness the military actions against Nigeria and Iranian installations. He claims that control of Venezuela's petroleum means this most recent venture “will be financially free”.

An Attack Without Legal Justification

George W. Bush launched the invasion of Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came lacking any form of UN approval or authorization from lawmakers; Democrats were not even informed and say they were deliberately deceived in briefings. Mr Trump doesn’t seek to bend international norms, but to shatter them.

Disregard the message this sends to leaders in Moscow, Beijing, and beyond, and consider the destination for America itself. While the raid is said to have slain 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s escalating feeling of being untouchable will surely embolden more reckless actions.

The Stated Reason Versus the Real Aims

No one buys the pretext that this is about drugs. Venezuela is only a minor conduit for cocaine; Mr Trump recently exonerated the ex-leader of Honduras Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the lure of oil as well as a desire to project strength, the ideology of some in his administration, and the quest for a legacy as domestic popularity wanes.

Tepid International Response and Waning Global Governance

The global reaction, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but trepidation regarding Mr Trump’s wrath. The forceful statement from UN Secretary General António Guterres was commendable, but this episode emphasizes the waning power of international bodies.

Mr Trump’s isolationist supporters at home could yet press him to focus on domestic issues once more – but escalating insurance prices, financial discontent and other domestic scandals increase his appetite for distraction.

Barely 12 months into his time in office. The international community may live to repent if they fail to speak up today, considering the potential next target.