Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
