Trump's Ukrainian Peace Initiative Represents a Gift to Putin

At first, the former US president gave the impression to adopt a strong approach regarding the Ukrainian conflict. Following making threats of "severe repercussions" during the summer in case Russia's president carried on hindering ceasefire discussions, Trump eventually imposed major sanctions on the Russian biggest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil. This decision significantly affected the Russian leader's capability to finance his war effort in the region.

Yet, with his latest comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by both nations' diplomats excluding Ukraine's or European involvement, Trump has seemingly reverted to his favorable to Russia approach.

Benefiting Invasion

The former president's initiative would effectively reward the Russian leader for invading Ukraine while leaving Ukraine's democratic system in danger. Although bold statements that "Ukraine's autonomy will be confirmed", much of the initiative effectively undermine that very independence. What represents a Moscow's wish would likely be a Ukrainian nightmare.

Showing his business background, Trump seems to view the situation in Ukraine as a simple territorial dispute, implying ceding Putin a part of Ukraine's land will satisfy the ruler. Yet, Putin's military campaign is not simply about occupying a charred region of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democratic governance – and Putin's apparent desire to weaken it so it ceases to functions as an appealing example for the Russian people of the democratic governance that his deepening authoritarian rule denies them.

Border Concessions

Although keeping in position the currently split regions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, Trump's plan would compel Ukraine to abandon the whole this eastern territory. Aside from favoring the Russian Federation with territory that its military have been unable to seize in exceeding a ten years of conflict, this concession would render Ukrainian defenses critically compromised.

The area is the site of Ukraine's highly-touted "fortress belt", the well-established protective structures that constitute a key barrier to enemy progress. The proposal would have Ukraine surrender these defenses, leaving Putin a unobstructed way to the capital should he subsequently choose to resume the war.

Military Limitations

Additionally, in a action that would make renewed hostilities easier for Russia, the plan would require the nation to cut the numbers of its troops from their present 800,000 to 850,000 soldiers to a cap of 600,000. Notably, the proposal sets no such restrictions on Russian forces.

In what appears as a gesture to Putin's efforts to depict the nation's chosen by the people government as extremists, the proposal states: "Every radical belief system and actions must be opposed and prohibited." Apparently to highlight this element, it insists that "Ukraine will hold democratic votes in 100 days" of a truce. However, the proposal places no condition that Putin jeopardize his regime by allowing elections in Russia.

Defense Guarantees

To be sure, the plan includes Russia pledge not to "enter other states" and to "enshrine in legislation its stance of non-violence towards the EU and the Ukrainian people". However taking into account that the Russian leadership has breached similar accords in the history – for example the Budapest accord, in which Russia promised to respect the nation's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its Soviet-era nuclear weapons, and the previous peace deals, in which Moscow committed to a halt in fighting and a return of seized areas in the region to the government – for what reason should anyone trust Russia on this occasion?

For this reason Ukraine has been so determined on external defense commitments. Although the plan warns of a "immediate joint armed reaction" if the Russian Federation renew its military campaign, and states that "The nation will receive reliable protection assurances", the details range from vague to alarming. The proposal would not only deny the nation alliance membership but also prohibit Nato members from stationing troops on Ukraine's soil, effectively preventing the reassurance force, likely headed by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to prevent Putin from replenishing his weakened military, restocking, and attacking again.

International Concern

Another supplementary accord according to sources would offer the nation with a Nato-style defense commitment, in which any subsequent "significant, deliberate, and sustained military assault" by the Russian Federation on the country "shall be regarded as an attack threatening the stability and safety of the Western nations." That suggests a defense action. Yet different from a capable Ukraine's armed forces – Ukraine's most reliable protection against renewed invasion – the success of the parallel accord would rely on the commitment of Western powers, such as the US administration, to respond militarily to Russia's aggression, something they have {not